NIT Wrap Up

Over the last 10 years, I’ve developed a Pavlovian response to seeing Duke on the same court as UConn: prepare emotionally for the sports equivalent of nuclear holocaust. No program has caused Duke more heartache in the last 10 years, no one’s been the source of a more painful couple of season ending losses than UConn (’99 Finals, ’04 Final Four). UNC may be our all too familiar nemesis—the straight A’s big brother we can never fully outshine. But UConn is more like looking in the mirror (that is, if the team in the mirror churned out borderline NBA All Star caliber two-guards and knew how to coach guys over 6-foot-8). Only Duke and UConn (along with Florida) have won two titles in the last 25 years and none before that. Only those two schools have elevated their programs to the level of the old elites along with UNC, Kentucky, UCLA, and Indiana. And both schools face a potential crisis in the next five years or so, once the inevitable changing of the coaching guard occurs. We’ll see if either school can remain among the sports’ upper crust in the next generation when Mike Krzyzewski and Jim Calhoun exit stage left for good.

Ok, so maybe the NIT Championship (A.K.A. Second Round) didn’t carry quite the same stakes as our last few encounters. For Duke, this one really wasn’t about UConn at all (the only way to exorcise those demons is to beat them late in the tournament). This one was about giving our team a sneak peak at playing a program on par with the rest of ACC, and I expected this to be a particularly sobering dose of reality. Each year we make our projections, but ultimately, you never truly know what you’ve got until the grind of the ACC season. The shots that guys can get away with against Coastal Carolina and Radford aren’t going to fly against UConn or the ACC. This was a game intended to gauge how our guys have improved as individuals from last year and how this group responds to vastly superior athletes at multiple positions.

So what did we learn? Well, thanks to a humiliating effort from Connecticut, who’s much better than their performance showed, we learned a lot less than we should have. How else do you explain shooting 29 percent from the field without ever being challenged? UConn turned the ball over consantly, continually forced terrible shots, and couldn’t hit free throws or the occasional decent look they did get. Duke often seems to grit out these early season games against teams that are usually superior come tournament time (i.e. 2005--Duke over Michigan St. by 13 in Cameron on 11/30. Michigan St. over Duke by 10 in the Sweet Sixteen later that year). If we played 10 times in March, I'd expect UConn to win seven of those.

The Backcourt: One thing we did learn is that most offensive possessions this season will be a struggle. There are only so many ways for Jon Scheyer to manufacture offense before he runs out of tricks in his bag. Scheyer was clearly the best player on the court against both Arizona St. and UConn, as will be the case plenty more times this season. But unlike many college point guards who can initiate offense through their quickness and north-south penetration, Scheyer has to create space through a wide array of creative fakes and his ability to change the pace of play. He has tremendous creativity, wonderful body control, and is off the charts in basketball IQ and court guile. Yet when I watch him play, I can’t help but feel sorry for him. I feel bad that he never played for a team that could complement his skills, that he got cheated out of the college career he deserved. On every single possession, he’s the one who has to gain that half step to get the offense in motion. Singler’s the only other player he can run a pick-and-roll with, the only guy he can, to a degree, defer to. But unlike Singler, who laid an egg in the UConn game, Duke can’t afford for Scheyer to ever disappear on the floor. I think we’re heading for a valiant and statistically prolific senior year, but also a very frustrating one for Jon Scheyer.

Look at the lines of Duke’s two starting guards:

Vs. UConn
Jon Scheyer—19 points on 6-for-18 shooting, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 2 turnovers in 37 minutes

Nolan Smith—16 points on 5-for-21 shooting, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 2 blocks, 3 turnovers in 40 minutes

Vs. Arizona St.
Jon Scheyer—16 points on 6-for-13 shooting, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 turnover in 40 minutes

Nolan Smith—14 points on 6-for-14 shooting, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 3 turnovers in 40 minutes

Not that different statistically, right? You’d never know the immense disparity in effectiveness just by looking at the box score. But one guard (Scheyer) passed the eye test and the other (Smith) looked utterly overwhelmed against two teams from major conferences in his new starring role. Smith might be leading Duke in scoring at 18.5 per game, but on a team that already has little margin for error, I’m afraid Nolan might be the weak link. He doesn’t have a position and is not significantly above average in any facet of the game. As a shooting guard, he’s a below average mid-range and three point spot-up shooter. He can’t create his own shot off the dribble and hit a jumper from 15 feet or more. He’s a decent slasher, slightly above average at getting to the basket, but he can’t finish once he gets there. The floaters and layups that he was able to get off against Charlotte and Radford on his way to 24 and 20 points, respectively, suddenly weren’t there against Arizona St. and UConn. And he doesn’t quite have the size, strength, and athleticism to at least draw the foul once he gets to the rim. As a spark off the bench, I like what he brings. As a starting ACC two-guard, it’s just not going to be enough.

In most years since 2005, I’ve watched the non-conference season and thought the same thing: just one piece away. One point guard away (’05, ‘06 ). Or one athletic, rebounding, big body away from having a fighting chance at a final four (’09). This year’s missing piece: a versatile two guard who can hit jumpers and consistently draw fouls on drives to the basket. As Gerald Henderson fades away in the purgatory of the bench of an NBA non-playoff team (the surest road to the Polish league), and as Elliot Williams drops yet another 20 points for Memphis, I can’t help but echo the same refrain. One damn piece away. If only Andre Dawkins were ready.

I’m a sucker for a high-arching, straight out of the textbook, silky smooth jumpshot, and as a freshman who wasn't even supposed to be here, I'm really excited that Dawkins already has that going for him. He’s already got more maturity in his shot than Smith. And an even better sign: he doesn’t force it! Remember those fadeaways Henderson used to force because he thought he was Kobe? And we let it go because, even if he couldn’t hit that shot, his body moved like a classic NBA caliber shooting guard. So we said, “he’ll get there, he’ll start hitting that.” And he never did. Give me a kid who plays within himself like Dawkins any day. Now, he doesn’t have the diversity of moves to create his own shot off the dribble or the quickness to get to the rim consistently. My real fear is that Duke’s lack of talent at the shooting guard position will force Dawkins to step up too soon and he’ll start to develop bad habits. Let’s hope the kid bides his time. If so, he could be playing a key role as a deadly shooter by the end of the year.

Big Men: I spent $10 to see the Duke-Arizona St. game live, which was by an order of magnitude the least amount of money I’ve spent in my entire life to enter MSG. It’s mandatory that I see Duke live at least once a season in order to get a sense of the team dynamic, the pregame rituals, and the other details you catch only in person. During warmups, I was disgusted when I saw Lance Thomas’ pregame routine. He spent half the time taking 16-18 foot jumpers from beyond the elbows, hitting roughly 1-in-10. The rest of the time, he practiced faking the shot from 16-18 feet, took a few wildly uncoordinated dribbles that seemed to bounce practically to eye level, and pulled up for a 12 footer that had little chance of going in. Am I the only one who NEVER wants to see Lance take a 15-18 foot jump shot or even take a single dribble in a game? There are certain things Thomas should never do: 1) shoot from 15 feet or more, and 2) put the ball on the floor. From all I’ve heard, Thomas seems like a lovely man and an emotional leader on this team. But bad things invariably happen when he tries to dribble. And if he’s practicing his midrange jumper during warm-ups, does that mean it’s a shot Coach K and the staff actually want him taking? I am completely puzzled by this.

Not to continue taking shots at Lance, who I’m sure will make a fine graphic artist in the not-so-distant future, but did you happen to see Coach K’s recent quote on Lance’s future basketball prospects? According to SNY reporter Adam Zagoria, Coach K said we shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss Thomas as an NBA player.

“All of a sudden someone’s going to really like Lance, whether they draft him or bring him to camp and keep him because he’s almost 6-9, he’s got great energy. He’s really improved offensively. He’s a glue guy and he can play defense and he can defend multiple positions,” he said.

Coach K, please don’t insult our intelligence. I respect Lance’s heart and attitude and I think he has an important role as a somewhat versatile defender and a guy who can crash the boards when we need it. But we’ll see Andre “Drizzle” Buckner rap the national anthem before an NBA game and then get signed at halftime just so he can run out the clock in garbage time before we ever see Lance suit up in the league.

I know Kyle Singler was a shell of himself in the UConn game, but I’m not worried about him. He’s still the best all-around player on this team and he’ll be Duke’s leading scorer this season, averaging anywhere from 17 to 20 points per game. He needs to do a better job of staying involved in the offense, but Robinson was a difficult matchup for him, so I’m not going to bash him just yet.

For me, the jury’s still out on Miles Plumlee. Overall, he’s shown more than I expected of him, but I think he’s a classic ‘let’s wait for the ACC season before we judge’ case. Although I do half expect the Plumlee brothers to accidentally clunk heads on the court and blame and berate each other as play continues. At best, I’m hoping they’ll be a poor man’s Collins brothers at Stanford, who as it turned out, were a poor man’s Lopez brothers.

And then there’s Zoubek. Wouldn't he be better off studying in the Gothic Reading Room? He should mentor gangly adolescent boys and teach them that if someone ever comes up to them and says, ‘Hey, you’re tall, you should play basketball,” just walk away. Walk away.

(How come Duke fans always develop cheers for irrelevant white guys like Zoubek (“Zoob, Zoob, Zoob”) and Pocious (“Marty doesn’t foul!” I actually kind of liked that one), and Lee Melchionni (“Leeeee Leeeeee Leeeee”)?

Other thoughts: O.K. While we’re on the topic, let’s address the elephant in the room. This might be one of the whitest teams I’ve ever seen on any level in the modern era. It’s actually kind of creepy. BYU players are looking at us and saying, “Damn, they’re really white!” Having 10 white players out of 13 makes me feel like I'm just a few pairs of thigh-hugging shorts away from rooting for the villain in a formulaic basketball movie that takes place in the 1950s. And if I’m thinking that as a decidedly white guy (although in the interest of full disclosure, probably a self-hating one), then what are high school basketball players thinking when they watch Duke play? In the last few years, Duke has been turned down by some of the most talented kids in the country—Greg Monroe, Patrick Patterson, John Wall, Harrison Barnes. Most people, especially kids heading to an unfamiliar environment, feel most comfortable around a few people who have similar life experiences. And this isn’t just an issue of color. As you may have noticed, a disproportionate number of Duke players in recent years have been the children of either former players or coaches. Doesn’t this somewhat limit what Duke players—who probably spend 12 hours a day with one another—can teach each other, both on the court of and off? When there’s diversity of background, of culture, of style of play, of life experiences, everybody wins. Right?

--Did you happen to catch the clip ESPN played twice of Jim Calhoun praising Coach K as the toughest coach he ever faces. Sure, it’s an interesting piece of tape, but is it really worthy of the double showing? It probably wouldn’t have anything to do with the fact that Duke is slated to appear on ESPN or ESPN2 16 more times this season not including the ACC tournament. So it might be in ESPNs interest for Duke to remain an elite team, or at least for that perception to remain intact.

--Watcthing the Arizona St. game, I sure didn’t miss Eric Boateng. Dreadful footwork, frantic under the basket with the ball, can’t avoid fouling—he really would have fit in perfectly at Duke.

--I’m really excited to watch Mason Plumlee play tonight against Wisconsin, the first time I’ll see him since I missed the exhibition games. Supposedly he’s the more talented of the Plumee brothers. We shall see…

Worst case, this team loses in the first round of the tournament. Best case, it’s a Sweet Sixteen team. I’ll split the difference and say this team just has the feel of a 4-seed that loses to a 5-seed in the second round. Yep. I think I just made my official prediction.

More frequent posts to come as the season heats up.

Thoughts, anyone?