Thursday, December 3, 2009

On Wisconsin

I can’t get too angry about a loss to a smart, versatile, superbly-coached team on its home court, the type of team Duke could end up facing in a second round NCAA tournament matchup. Wednesday night’s loss to Wisconsin wasn’t nearly as close as the score suggests; had Kyle Singler not gone unconscious for a career-high 28 points (17 in the first half), it could have easily been a 20-point margin.

So no more worrying about staying undefeated or maintaining a high national ranking. This Duke team isn’t gunning for a 1-seed in the tournament anyway, so an early loss to a formidable out-of conference team isn’t a debilitating blow to the season. If anything, the film of this loss should provide the foundation for ways Duke needs to improve by the start of the ACC season, which opens on Jan. 3 against Clemson exactly a month from today.

Bo Ryan has mastered the Wisconsin formula, now in its third or fourth incarnation since he arrived in ’01-‘02 : surround one or two quick, versatile guards(Trevon Hughes, like Devin Harris and Alando Tucker before him) with interchangeable jump-shooting big men. And don’t turn the ball over. Pretty simple. We could learn a thing or two from them. (Doesn’t Bo look like he should be the Don of one of the five New York families. I’d go to the mattresses for Don Bo any day.)

It’s going to be a real challenge for Nolan Smith to balance trying to assert himself while avoiding selfish basketball. Right now, he’s giving away an unacceptable number of possessions each game: the forced jumper from the corner early on, the 1-on-3 break that should have been slowed down but was instead driven to the hoop before getting called for a travel, the shot to end the first half that he could barely get off. In three games against big conference opponents, he’s now shooting a combined 16-for-52 for just over 30 percent. That’s horrific.

Not to keep picking on Nolan, but his judgment has been downright atrocious so far. Down three with 10 seconds left in the game, why did he choose to drive the ball for the two instead of swinging the ball for the possible open three to tie the game? If there’s 20 to 25 seconds left and you want to sneak in an extra possession in the hopes they’ll miss a free throw, that’s one thing. But 10 seconds isn’t enough time to bring the ball back down the floor.

Meanwhile, after a disappointing UConn game, Singler showed why he’ll be a top 15 pick in next year’s draft and will probably be a more effective pro than half the guys taken above him. Three or four times in the first half I said to myself, “Wow, that’s an NBA move.” He has such wonderful touch around the basket and from the midrange and he covers ground so effortlessly. I just worry that on nights like this, when he’s got it going and the rest of the offense is stagnant, that everyone else will just watch him rather than incorporate him into the flow of the offense.

I was surprised at the extent to which they were able to shut down Jon Scheyer. We know he’s susceptible to the small, quicker guards (i.e. Scottie Reynolds and the Coreys in the loss to Villanova in last year’s tournament). But I excepted him to make adjustments to counterbalance that and he never did. He can’t take just seven shots (about six too few) to Nolan’s 17 (about six too many).

Check out the minutes the S’s have logged the last three games:

Singler: 40, 31, 40

Scheyer: 40, 37, 39

Smith: 40, 40, 37

Doesn't appear that Coach K has much trust in the team when all three aren't on the floor. Hope this doesn't come back to bite us.

Other notes:

--Going 4-for-4 fom three-point land, I continue to love what Dawkins brings to the table. The kid knows when to spot up at the three-point line and almost always gets a good look. For every time I yell "No don't take that!' to Nolan, I find myself saying "All day!" to Dawkins.

--In his first official game, Mason Plumlee got pushed around a lot down low. Even when I thought he had position, he got beaten to rebounds. And let's hope he's done with three-point attempts on the season. Was he shooting with his off hand or something? Yeesh.

--Trevon Hughes is the type of guard who can singlehandedly take over a tournament game, the type of guard we don't have. I'd be very worried if we had to face them again.

--Doesn't it seem like our bigs (with the exception of Miles Plumlee) rarely make power moves to the basket when they've got the ball down low? They always seem to go for the fadeaway instead of an aggresive drop step to the basket.

--Does anyone else think Bob Knight is one of the best color commentators around? He's a wonderful teacher and doesn't talk down to the viewer or try too hard to be funny. He's interesting, smart, and likeable. Based on rumors I've heard, Coach K is a lot more like his mentor than he lets on, a side of him I wish we could see more often. I loved when Knight started railing on his his son Patrick's defense. I'd let my kid get choked at the Bob Knight School of Broadcasting any day.

5 comments:

  1. This one felt like a loss for the "Dukes" from the early going. Bo Ryan had a crazed look in his eye. I quickly remembered how terrible college reffing is and what an impact it can have on a game after watching mostly the NBA recently.

    It's funny when you're down by 3 at the end of the game, have a guy who's shooting 4-4 from behind the arc, and he doesn't get the ball.

    Nolan has a really slow first step and can't drive on fast guards. That's one thing I realized last night. And he's even worse at the Kobe-imitating fade-aways than Henderson was last year.

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  2. If you plan on discussing the St. John's game, PLEASE comment on how nolan smith completely ignored a wide open dawkins in the lane (by himself!!), and instead opted for an ego-trip drive and dunk.

    This team doesn't pass following a drive, either. Singler gets hot sometimes but then thinks he can create his own shot on every possetion. Nolan is thinking the same thing, but has less success.

    Re: Bob Knight... i remember enjoying the UConn-LSU NIT preseason game more than Duke-Az St. Knight was the commentater in the former, and Dickie V completely ruined the latter. V doesn't discuss the game, has 1 fact about each duke player that he repeats EVERY game (several for Singler), and spends more time talking about the celebrities in the stands--especially if they are Italian--rather than discussing why a play succeeded or failed or the type of defenses being run. Knight makes me smarter, Dickie V makes me dumber.

    anyway good post.
    -2006 grad.

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  3. Alando Tucker was never a guard at Wisconsin. He played forward exclusively. At 6'6", he's small for NBA forward and they have tried to move Alando to guard. But he never played guard for Bo Ryan.

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  4. Hey - just wanted to say I'm really enjoying your blog - keep up the good work! As a class of 2003er, we are of similar Duke BB vintage, and I find myself agreeing with you on a lot of your analysis and frustrations. I'd be interested to hear your take on the last couple games, especially since I missed the Gonzaga game (DVRed it, but I'm in DC and ended up recording 3 hours of snow storm updates...ugh).

    Take it easy.

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  5. Looking back, I have to say you saved yourself a lot of embarrassment by not continuing the blog beyond December. Could you have been more wrong in your assessments of Smith, Zoubeck and Thomas?

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